Conflict of In terest: India, Japan & China

At a time when China is breathing fire over India’s neck, any move that takes India closer to Japan at the cost of Chinese trade interest would be taken as an act of hostility by Beijing. While it is in India’s interest to strengthen ties with Japan which is a natural ally it should not be seen to be joining hands with Tokyo to harm Beijing.

One fine print of statement that was not highlighted by the media was Japan’s interest in pulling out or reducing its investments in China’s infrastructure sector and shifting its focus on India instead. One reason why China has been flexing its muscles against India is South Block’s flawed foreign policy. New Delhi does not miss any opportunity to needle Chinese interests in the neighbouring countries of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. We can hardly influence Pakistan to resist Chinese interests in that country, economic or military.

If China agreed to deescalate tension on our border, it was not because of China’s ‘good intentions’ or seriousness in resolving the border dispute. The real factor was burgeoning trade with India. We import goods from China well over 15 billion US $ against our own export to China which is little over 2 billion US $. Just for the sake of capturing some patches of Indian land, China is not interested in jeopardizing its mercantile interest in India. However, this does not mean that China would stop its campaign on the border to surround India from strategic points. Nor it will be abandoning its claim on Arunchal Pradesh.

Historically, if we look at Indo-China border dispute it dates back to the British Raj in India. For thousands of years, India and China lived together without any defined international border. Even today, there is no defined international border between India and China. When the British established its Raj in the country, it found that there was no international border between the two countries. They decided to draw a line that was line of control. It was in 1913-14 that Sir Henry McMohan concluded a conference to draw a line between Tibet and Assam, hence the McMohan Line.

It was an unclear boundary that led to the Chinese aggression of 1962. Huge chunk of Indian territory are still under the occupation of the Chinese Army.

India, instead of giving pinpricks to China is well advised to strengthen its defence forces. If there is a full- fledged war between India and China or between India and Pakistan we can’t engage them in combat for more than 15 days. Neither our economy nor our inventory of arms and ammunitions are sufficient to sustain a prolonged war with any country. In any case war is best avoided. It does not mean that we should expose our vulnerability to the world because of our poor defence. High time India should increase its defence budget to replace outdated weapons with the new ones.

When we look around, we find that we are surrounded by nations who are far from friendly, be it China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal or Bangladesh.

~ R. K. Sinha