Money Begets Votes: Spend Crores to Win

GOPINATH MUNDE, SENIOR LEADER, BJP

There is an adage ‘money begets money’. In any business or enterprise big capital brings big returns. More money you spend in business more is the profit. The trick of the trade has now gone to the elections. Electoral politics is getting money oriented.

Only the other day, Gopinath Munde, the national vice president of the BJP and a member of Lok Sabha from Maharashtra declared in Mumbai that he had spent more than rupees eight crores in the 2009 general elections to win the seat. In the heat of the moment, Munde went on to challenge the Election Commission saying ‘do what you can do but I spent rupees eight crores against the prescribed upper limit of Rs. 40 lakhs for a candidate contesting Lok Sabha seat.

Taking cognizance of Munde’s confession of violating the code of conduct, the Election Commission has ordered an inquiry into the whole affairs. Munde is not worried since he is on record saying that even if the Election Commission disqualifies him as an MP, he would not mind since the elections are just a few months away. But the matter does end there. Under the Representation of the People Act, if the charge of over spending is established against any candidate, he or she can be debarred from contesting elections for three years. If not impossible, it will be extremely difficult for the Commission to establish the charge and prove that Munde did spend more than Rs.40 lakhs. In the criminal jurisprudence, the onus of proof lies on prosecution.

Leave aside the legal intricacies of the case, Munde was honest enough to say that he spent rupees 8 crores in the elections. There are many others including a large number of Ministers in the UPA Government, former Ministers and Members of Parliament (Lok Sabha) in almost all political parties who are said to have spent as big an amount as 40-50 crores in elections. You are innocent till caught.

A tribal leader and former chief minister of Jharkhand reportedly had doled out cash to voters ranging from 1000 rupees to 2000 rupees for each vote. Why Jharkhand, in states like Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, Harayana, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, cash, liquor and gifts are freely distributed on the eve of elections to win votes. In Goa, some candidates distributed colour television sets. Some political parties openly promise to distribute TV sets and laptops to the people if voted to power. There are political parties who promise free electricity if voted to power. This is nothing but allurement and illegitimate way of influencing electorates. The Election Commission despite its best of efforts and intentions has not been able to put a curb on such practice of political parties.

Some enterprising candidates generally would reach out to village pramukhs or any influential man of the area and in town the goons and the dadas, pay them hefty amount to ensure that voters turn up at the polling stations and caste votes in their favour. It is not for nothing that the Election Commission officers and observers have in the past intercepted and seized huge amount of cash being carried in the constituencies on eve of the elections. Despite this, hundreds of crores of rupees are distributed on the eve of the polls.

This is high time that the Election Commission raises the cap on election expenditure from the current limit of Rs. 40 lakhs to at least a crore for Lok Sabha and Rs 50 lakhs for Legislative Assembly, though this step may not necessarily stop the use of black money in the elections.

~R. K. Sinha

Congress & Corruption Go Together: The Southern Deal

M. KARUNANIDHI, HEAD, DMK

KANIMOZHI, MP, RAJYA SABHA

For Congress it does not matter if it supports an accused in the multi crore 2G scam for petty political gain – an alliance in Tamil Nadu for Lok Sabha elections. Scruples have no place in the ruling Congress Party at the Centre. Now the Party has decided to support M Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi in the Rajya Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu who will not be elected to the Upper House without the support of the Congress.

For DMK leader Karunanidhi, pretention is always better than practice. The DMK chief who broke the alliance with the UPA following arrest of his daughter and denial of bail in the 2G spectrum case and on Sri Lankan Tamils issue has no qualms in approaching the Congress to help Kanimozhi retain her Rajya Sabha seat. What matters most for the DMK is to go for the spoil of office and power. The CBI has charged Kanimozhi along with A Raja in the 2G scam. She was jailed cooling her heels for more than six months in Tihar before she was granted bail. She is facing prosecution trial in the special designated court of the CBI in Delhi.

The immediate fall out of this unholy deal will be dilution of the charges against A Raja, Kanimozhi and Dayanidhi Maran. The CBI will be asked to go slow in the case. The prosecution lawyers would put weak arguments during the trial and even prefer to hold evidence against the accused. The entire arrangement between the Congress and the DMK smacks of corruption and criminalization of politics.

Criminals in politics don’t necessarily mean murderers, rapists and dacoits. White collar criminals are equally dangerous to the society and the polity of the country.

See what the Congress spokesman Sandeep Dixit has to say about the deal- “People can go to jail, that does not mean they are guilty”. One should remind Dixit and his party leaders that there is something called probity in public life. The law of the land does allow people faced with charges including charges of murder and embezzlement of public money or making money in deals to contest elections. One is innocent till proved guilty. But it does not give a license to stuff Parliament and State Legislatures with criminals. It is the UPA Government and its investigating agency that has held the DMK leaders guilty of corruption charges. Prima facie there is strong case against these leaders. It was precisely for this reason that the Prime Minister sacked A Raja from the Union Council of Ministers. It also removed Dayanidhi Maran because of corruption charges. Suddenly it finds that ‘corruption’ is no issue and there is no harm in ignoring the charges if it suits the political convenience of the ruling party.

The Congress also came forward with ridiculous argument in favour of the deal. Its leaders say that the Congress fears the prospects of J Jayalaliths and her Party the AIADMK to join hands with the BJP and Narendra Modi in the next Lok Sabha elections, hence better to join hands with Karunaidhi and his DMK to counter the BJP move in Tamil Nadu.

I wonder, one day the Congress and its partners may even justify rehabilitating all corrupt and criminals in the country in the name of ‘Modi’- to keep the BJP leader out of the race. This is not going to help, more they shout ‘bhago bhago Modi  aya’, more it will harm itself in politics.

~R. K. Sinha

Minority Govt In Bihar: Nitish On The Edge

MANMOHAN SINGH, PRIME MINISTER

SONIA GANDHI, CHAIRPERSON, UPA

NITISH KUMAR, CM, BIHAR

Though the Nitish Kumar Government has survived trial of strength in the Bihar Assembly on June 19 with the help of the Congress and the CPI, his government has been reduced to minority. Only four out of six Independent MLAs voted in favour of the trust vote; two independents voted against the government along with RJD MLAs. In reality, the government has 121 Members in the House of 243 which is just one short of absolute majority of 122. The state government, thus, is in minority and for every trial it has to depend on the Congress to survive in office.

Nitish has already thanked the Congress and the CPI for the support but will he come under pressure of the Congress Party to toe its line for the latter’s continued support. Can Nitish Kumar or for that matter the JD(U) afford to criticize the UPA Government on corruption charges and scams? Can the JD(U) take on the Manmohan Singh on policy matters, perhaps not. If that be the case then question arises about the   future of Nitish joining an anti-Congress and anti-BJP front to take on the UPA Government in the next general elections.

There is a question mark now over the yet to be formed Federal Front being mooted by West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik of which the Bihar chief minister now is a part of.

Reactions from Mamata and Naveen are still awaited on the latest turn of events- Congress and CPI in the rescue of Nitish Government in Patna. Should Nitish decide to go with the votaries of ‘third front’ that loosely consists of the Left Parties, the Samajvadi Party, the TDP etc. then again the JD(U) has to go against the Congress Party. Should that happens, will the Congress in future vote for the JD(U) government? Can Nitish Government discharge its duty honestly under the present circumstances? The ambiguity must end sooner than later.

In the event Nitish Kumar sides with the Congress, there is a possibility of Mayavati joining hands with Nitish in Bihar and become part of the UPA. Mayavati does have some support base among the Dalits in Bihar but that would be hardly of much help to the JD(U) in the elections.

Another point which is significant politically is the Congress’ snub to Lalu Yadav who is part of the UPA. Lalu is a potential pre-poll ally of the Congress in Bihar. He must be terribly upset by the Congress’ move to bail out Nitish Kumar in the trial of strength in the state assembly. Any day Congress Party would prefer Nitish over Lalu in Bihar who does not hold any better prospects in the elections. The RJD can’t go along with Nitish. That would force the RJD leader to go against the Congress and join the third front or federal front whichever emerges as a formidable opposition to the Congress and the BJP.

For the BJP it is a win-win situation in Bihar. Nitish’s proximity with the Congress would only increase the support base for the BJP. Virtually, the BJP would have the field to en-cash on the anti-incumbency of the UPA Government at the Centre in the next Lok Sabha elections.

~R. K. Sinha

Congress: A Party of ‘Broom’ & ‘Butter’

A small news item from Raipur in an English daily says that a Union Minister of State in the Manmohan Singh Government is ready to sweep the floor of the Congress office if Sonia Gandhi asks him to do so. The minister concerned is Charandas Mahant holding the charge of Agriculture and Food Processing. In the latest reshuffle of office bearers of the Congress and Union Ministers, Mahant has been given additional charge of Working President of the Chhatisgarh Congress Committee.

“I am ready to pick up broom and sweep the floor of the Congress Office if Soniaji asks me to do so”, this is what the Minister said in response to a question from reporters in Raipur on Monday.

There are many others in the Congress Party who seldom hesitate in saying that they are ‘humble servants’ of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. This is the order of the Party affairs in the Congress whose leaders swear day in and day out that their Party is truly a democratic organization where Party workers and leaders have the right to dissent.

It reminds me of the years when Indira Gandhi was ruling the country. Giani Zail Singh was brought from Punjab to the Centre as Union Home Minister in 1980s. And from Home Minister he was the Congress nominee for President of India. He subsequently occupied the Rashtrapati Bhavan. He too in the moment of gratitude to his leader had said that leave aside my shifting from the Punjab scene to New Delhi as a Minister and from there to Rashtrapati Bhavan, I would be too happy to sweep the floor with a broom if asked to do so by Indiraji. People still remember the famous quote of Dev IKant Barooah, the then Congress President who had said, “India is Indira and Indira is India”.

Nothing has changed since then. Congressmen with ability to pick up broom rise in the hierarchy of power. Look at the latest reshuffle in the government. Oscar Fernandes who was considered useless in the government four years ago and dropped from the ministry by the same government returns as a Cabinet Minister. Not that the Prime Minister has suddenly discovered Oscar’s talent to induct him in the government but the signal came from 10, Janpath that Oscar be rewarded for his loyalty to the family. Another man Sisram Ola who too was dumped by the Prime Minister four years ago is back again as Cabinet Minister. Others who found their berths in the government owe it to their readiness to pick up broom and sweep the floor of leaders.

Today, the Congress and its fellow travelers are raising the bogey of autocratic style of functioning of Narendra Modi saying that there is no democracy in the BJP. Had there been no democracy in the BJP, Nitin Gadkari would have remained the Party President. Had the BJP run its affairs without democratic values, Rajnath Singh would not have been elected as the new President of the Party. BJP runs its affairs with broader consensus and consultations. Narendra Modi was given the charge of the elections campaign committee only after majority in the Party favoured it. By the same token, the opinion of the senior leader like L K Advani was not entertained when it came to elevating Modi because the BJP honours majority view before taking any decision.

In sharp contrast, the Congress is a party of nominations. Whether it has to appoint or dismiss a Pradesh Congress Committee chief, the leadership never takes opinion of its workers or state leaders. It simply issues ‘firman’ (order) to impose its decision on the Party.

Those who follow political course would remember that Andhra Pradesh chief minister T Anjiah was unceremoniously removed from office just because he had failed to lay a red carpet welcome to the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1985 at Hyderabad Airport. This is the (un) democratic style of functioning of the Congress Party! 

~ R. K. Sinha

Secular Credentials of Narendra Modi Intact

NARENDRA MODI, CM, GUJRAT

A single incident of riots can’t determine the secular credentials of a leader. What happened in 2002 was a spontaneous reaction in the aftermath of burning of the people inside the train. There has been no incident of communal violence in Gujrat after 2002 under Narendra Modi. No political leader of acumen with national ambitions will think of ‘polarisation’ on communal line. India is a plural society with vast population of minorities. How any leader can think of writing off the minorities in a democracy?

Apprehensions are being expressed over Modi’s credentials as secular leader. This is nothing but a malicious campaign of the forces opposed to the BJP. If one looks at the political career of Narendra Modi he has written his script on a clean slate. Once he is elected to the office of Prime Minister of India, he will emerge not only as a secular leader but also a liberal Prime Minister. He will prove his critics wrong once the opportunity comes to him to serve the country from South Block.

Nitish Kumar has said in interview given to some newspapers that with Modi at the helm there is no hope of democratic values being retained either within the BJP or in the government. One has seen the days of National Emergency in 1975. Attempt to curtail the democratic rights of the people was defeated when the voters delivered a crushing defeat to the Congress under Indira Gandhi.

Look what Nitish had said about Modi in 2003 and I quote “I am certain that Narendrabhai will not be confined to Gujrat for long and the country will get the benefit of his services”. These were the words of Nitish just a year after the riots.

By breaking away from the NDA, Nitish Kumar has lost opportunity to continue to remain at the centre stage of national politics. His party the JD (U) will be marginalized without the support of the BJP in the next elections. Beside the point, his action has only gone to benefit the corrupt and dynastic rule of the Congress party at a time when people are ready to overthrow the UPA Government led by the Congress Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

The policy of appeasement has harmed the nation. The Congress has only promoted the policy of alienation rather than forging the bond of Indianness in the country. Just for a few votes it has aligned with the divisive forces who openly preach against India not only within the country but from international platform. Is this ‘secularism’?

Nothing could be farther from the truth that the BJP cadre has been “bulldozed” with the anointment of Narendra Modi and that leaders are stifled. On the contrary, the cadre is fully behind Modi and so are leaders of the BJP. A victory for the BJP will see regional parties coming to the fold of the NDA to install the next government at the Centre. No wonder, one may see even Nitish standing in the queue to join the bandwagon of the NDA after the people’s verdict.

~R. K. Sinha

BJP Blames JD (U) for Split: It’s A Betrayal of People’s Trust

NITISH KUMAR, CM, BIHAR

SHARAD YADAV, CONVENOR, JDU

NARENDRA MODI, CM, GUJRAT

SUSHIL MODI, LEADER, BJP

The Split is complete and wide open. With one stroke, the JD (U) ended 17 year old alliance with the BJP on Sunday afternoon when Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar announced their decision to pull out of the NDA and seek vote of confidence in the Bihar Assembly on June 19, 2013, three days from now to run the government without the support of the BJP. I have already mentioned in my earlier blog that Nitish may survive the trial of strength on the floor of the Assembly since the JD(U) has 118 Members in the House of 243. With the support of 5 or 6 Independents it has the strength of 123 or 124 MLAS which is just two more than the simple majority of 122 to remain in power. In any case, Nitish will remain vulnerable with a razor thin majority in the House.   

The BJP has blamed the JD (U) for breaking the ties and betraying the people of Bihar since the mandate was given to the coalition and not to any one party. Sushil Kumar Modi has declared that the Party would observe ‘betrayal day’ on Tuesday next – June 18.

There is no element of surprise in the formal split of ties between the two partners. What was noteworthy was the fact that though the shadow of Narendra Modi loomed large over the Press conference in Patna on Sunday, at no point the name of the Gujarat Chief Minister was mentioned either by Ssharad Yadav or by Nitish Kumar. What they said was nothing more than fear or apprehension that the BJP was deviating from the common agenda agreed to by the two Parties.

Only in muted tone, Sharad and Nitish said that they were forced to take the decision on the ground of their avowed ‘principle’. They even fought sigh of saying that they were ending up the relationship for the cause of so called ‘secularism’ or for that matter against the so called ‘communalism’.

The opponents of the BJP must have relished today’s development. The anti-BJP club now has one more member- the JD (U). What the Congress and its allies besides the federal front or third front forget that BJP is a cadre based Party. In Bihar the BJP workers are upbeat after parting of ways with the JD (U). How on earth a regional force like the JD (U) can dictate terms to a national Party like the BJP to dump its leader just because the former does not like the face of so and so. Can or will the Congress entertain any hint or idea from any quarter of political parties aligned to it to dump any leader say Manmohan Singh because the latter don’t like him for one reason or the other. Such things are unheard of in coalition politics.

Narendra Modi is a constitutionally elected chief minister of Gujarat and a senior leader of the Party. In Goa where I was present as a delegate of the National Executive Meeting early this month, Narendra Modi was most sought after leader at the meeting. The demand to project him as the chief campaigner came from the grass root and hence the decision to anoint him despite objections from the senior leader L K Advani and his camp followers.

Unconfirmed reports say that Advaniji has now blamed the decision taken in haste in Goa on Modi that led to the break of the NDA. Even if one assumes that no decision was taken in Goa, the JD (U) would have broken up on the eve of general elections Modi or no Modi since Nitish Kumar has his own ambitions. The BJP should welcome the end of its ties with the JD(U) rather lament on the development.

~R. K. Sinha

Desperate Congress Goes To JMM

Rattled by the prospect of losing power at the Centre, the Congress is negotiating terms with Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand to get a couple of seats in the next Lok Sabha. There is saying in Hindi “Marta Kya Na Karta” that roughly means a man who sees his end can do anything to survive. The Congress Party appears to be in the same situation. The word ‘probity’ in public life does not exist in Congress’ dictionary, so it seems. Else, it would not have gone to Shibu Soren and his son Hemant Soren with the offer of propping up the junior Soren as the chief minister of the troubled state.

Jharkhand has been pushed to the brink courtesy the Congress Party. It supported the one member independent Madhu Koda as the chief minister of the state. Now Koda is in jail facing a string of criminal cases for looting the treasury that runs into 4000 crores of rupees. By the Centre’s own estimate it is the worst administered state in the country.

Jharkhand is currently under the President’s rule. Things have gone from bad to worse under the Central rule. There is total chaos in the state.

In 2009 elections, the Congress was able to win the lone seat of Ranchi out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Things have reached such a passé that it will be difficult for the sitting member Subodh Kant Sahai , a former Union Minister to retain his seat. The Congress is willing to pay any price for striking a deal with the JMM to enter into a pre-poll alliance for the Lok Sabha elections.

The six month spell of the President’s rule ends in the fourth week of July next. The Government has the option to dissolve the assembly and call fresh elections. Alternatively, it can extend the spell of the President’s rule by another six months by getting it endorsed by Parliament and go for elections simultaneously for the state assembly and Lok Sabha. But the political managers see a worsening of the situation under the President’s Rule that can only ensure a total route of the Party in the state.

The BJP has won maximum Lok Sabha seats in 2009 – 7 out of 14 followed by JMM -2, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha of Babulal Marandi-2, Independents-2 and Congress -1.

It will be either Shibu Soren or his son Hemant Soren who will be the chief minister with the support of the Congress Party. Chances are that Hemant Soren will take over the reins in Ranchi since his father has been sidelined by his own son.

In the House of 81, at least 42 Members are required for a bare majority to stake claim to form the government. The JMM has 18 seats while the Congress has 13 MLAs. Together it adds up to 41. With three independents the yet to be formed coalition would have the strength of 44 Members that is sufficient to run the government.

But question is will the people of the state who are already disgusted with the state of affairs reward the Congress for installing a government with a track record of misrule and corruption. The Congress which eyes the JMM share of votes to win a couple of seats in the state may end up paying a heavy price for its politics of opportunism in the next elections not only in Jharkhand but also in other states. But who cares when ‘operators’ are at work to install a government of convenience that would allow them to make quick money at the expense of the people of the state.

~R. K. Sinha

Breaking Alliance: Nitish Biggest Loser

NITISH KUMAR, CM, BIHAR

NARENDRA MODI, CM, GUJRAT

It is a matter of time when JD (U) formally announce its decision to break the alliance with the BJP, may be on June 15 next. In politics, it is difficult sometimes to retract from a pronounced stand on issues even when the decision hurts the Party or the Leader, politically speaking. In this case, Nitish on more than one occasion has made it clear that in no case he or his Party would accept Narendra Modi as a Prime Ministerial candidate of the BJP for the next general elections. It is loud and clear by now that in case BJP is able to win sufficient number of seats in the next Lok Sabha and in a position to form government, none other than Modi will be Prime Minister. Where is any option for Nitish now?

Without the BJP, Nitish will not be in a position to lead his Party to victory in the next elections. It is likely that he may survive as chief minister given the number of seats his Party has in the Bihar Assembly. In the House of 243, the JD(U) has 118 members, short of 4 seats for a majority of 122. With 6 independent MLAs, Nitish hopes to retain his majority in the Assembly. But this is of less consequence vis a vis the political stage at the national level.

Nitish’s base is on decline in Bihar as the outcome of Maharajganj by-elections for Lok Sabah shows, the changing caste equations in Bihar does not favour Nitish. The upper castes with a sizeable number of OBCs are solidly behind the BJP. The extremely backward castes have aligned with Lalu Yadav as the voting pattern in Maharajganj shows where RJD candidate won by a handsome margin. The only consolation for the JD(U) is that it will be able to retain its hold over the Muslims by opposing Narendra Modi. But a mere support of minority voters is no guarantee of win in the elections.

The talk of third front or federal front will have relevance for Nitish only when his Party is able to get good number of seats in the next Lok Sabha. The regional satraps who are in the process of coming together on a political platform can maneuver things only when they have the number. And the one who has maximum number of seats will call the shots. In the present Lok Sabha, JD (U) has 19 members from Bihar that sends 40 members to Parliament’s Lower House. In case the JD(U)’s tally does not reach double digit, Nitish’s role in national politics would  not be of much importance.

In the given situation will Nitish find another friend and ally to tie up for the next contest? This point is being discussed in political circles. The Congress is weighing the pros and cons of going for a pre-poll alliance in Bihar and Jharkhandp. Nitish is a better option for the Congress in Bihar compared to Lalu-Paswan combine. But will Nitish embrace a discredited Congress whose fortune are fast declining in the wake of series of charges of corruption. The UPA government is replete with scandals. With what face Nitish would go to the people seeking their mandate. At the end it is Nitish Kumar and his party the JD(U) who will be the biggest loser in the game.

The general mood of people of Bihar is to vote for the BJP to replace the corrupt Congress government in New Delhi with NDA Government that would be led by someone who is decisive and strong. Narendra Modi fits the bill.  

~R. K. Sinha

Modi’s Rath To Roll On: Advani Isolated

L. K. Advani, Senior BJP Leader

Narendra Modi, CM, Gujrat

It is becoming increasingly clear by now that the BJP is not going to reverse its decision on Narendra Modi, Advani’s protest notwithstanding. The Sangh (RSS) has solidly backed the decision on Modi and there is no going back on this. In the process, L K Advani is likely to get isolated in the Party. Most of the camp followers of L K Advani have little choice but to accept the Party decision albeit with a pinch of salt.

Despite the high voltage shock of L K Advani resigning from important Party posts, the BJP workers across the country are solidly behind the Party decision to let Modi take the charge of the elections. The cadre is enthused with the development though some senior Party leaders lament the decision of Advani withdrawing himself from the centre stage.

It is being said in the Congress camp that senior leaders belonging to the Advani camp will not take active part in the elections to ensure that the BJP does not get enough seats in the Lok Sabha to form the government. I would advise the Congress leaders to look into the past of its history. When Congress veterans like Moraraji Desai and regional satraps like S Nijlingappa revolted against Indira Gandhi in 1969 people thought that Indira Gandhi’s political career was doomed. But she proved her critics and opponents wrong by pulling out a convincing victory in 1971 general elections. What matters in electoral politics is garnering of votes. She emerged strongest Congress leader after Nehru because she won votes for the Congress.

Those who are beating the chest over political ascendency of Narendra Modi are better advised to realize the fact that Modi is one leader of the BJP today who can win votes for the Party. It is possible or may even be true that there are few BJP leaders who are more competent than Modi. But none of the top brass of the BJP has the charisma of Modi who draws crowd. Now people are interested in what Modi says. This is a major index of popularity of a leader.

Why only the BJP workers, even the youth of the country and people at large want Modi to lead. If this is true then BJP is all set to win good number of seats to form the government at the Centre. Doubts are being expressed that with Modi at the helm, it will be difficult for the BJP to find allies to get the magic figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha.

One has to go back to 1996. The mandate was fractured. The BJP was invited to form the government by the then President Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma since it was the single largest Party with 161 seats. Atal Behari Vajapyee took the oath as Prime Minister. But he failed to secure support of other parties to prove his majority on the floor of the House. The result: Vajpayee Government fell in 13 days.

Two years later in 1998, Vajpayee formed the government again at the Centre with 182 seats in the Lok Sabha. Realising that Vajpayee was a vote catcher all regional parties came on the Board and the NDA was formed. The political equations of 1998 came in place again 1999 with Vajpayee as the Prime Minister for the third time.

Once the BJP is able to win anything between 190-210 seats in the next Lok Sabha, all the regional parties that are making noises today will come to support the BJP led government. It is anybody’s guess now who would lead the government.

~ R. K. Sinha

Advani’’s Resignation Most Unfortunate

ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE, FORMER PM

NARENDRA MODI, CM, GUJRAT

L. K. ADVANI, SENIOR BJP LEADER

I am terribly upset with news that L K Advani, the patriarch of the BJP has resigned from all the posts he holds in the BJP. This is most unfortunate. He has resigned from the Parliament Board, Election Committee and the National Executive of the Party.

Just a few hours back, when I finished wring this piece of blog, I commented with hope that sooner than later the Advani camp opposed to the appointment of Narendra Modi as the Chairman of the Election Campaign Committee of the BJP would reconcile and would fall in line. But this was not to happen.

Not only me but hundreds of thousands of BJP workers and supporters all over the country must have received this news with a jolt. How the architect of the Party can destroy the Party that he built ‘brick by brick’ At the same time it must be said that Advani was never a mass leader. The only mass leader till date is Atal Behari Vajpayee.

There was a time when Atal Behari Vajpayee was hailed as ‘Yuva Hriday Samrat’ – Darling of the Youth. As a young Party member, I noticed how Atalji attracted the youth in those days wherever he went. Right from the days of Jana Sangh to the formation of Bharatiya Janata Party, Atalji has always been leader of the masses and Lal Krishna Avani was always his number two in the Party. It was only after Atalji fell sick and he withdrew himself from active politics that Advaniji became number one in the BJP. But, Advaniji could never become a mass leader. He was given full opportunity in 2009 when the BJP contested elections under the leadership of Adaniji. Not only he led the party but he was also officially declared BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in 2009.

What was the result? The Party lost the elections. Its strength in the Lok Sabha came down from 138 seats in 2004 to 116 seats in 2009. The share of votes also declined from 22.16% in 2004 to 18.80% in 2009. The total number of candidates who lost their security deposits in 2004 was 57 whereas in 2009 under the leadership of Advaniji 170 candidates forfeited their deposits.

On the other hand Narendra Modi has emerged as a mass leader with large followings amongst the youth of the country. It will not be out of place to mention here that Modi is poised to be another ‘darling of the youth’. The people are clamouring for a strong leader to lead the country. Modi has all the qualities of a strong and decisive leader with a vision. Not only this, Modi has an unblemished record of running the government in Gujarat without any scandal or any charge of corruption. In sharp contrast, the Congress led UPA government is mired in corruption and so are the chief ministers of the Congress ruled states.

In Goa, there was total unanimity amongst the delegates to announce that it is Modi who would lead the campaign in next general elections. If there was some murmuring it was from the camp followers of Advaniji. The Party President Rajnath Singh announced the decision to appoint Modi as the Chairman of the Election Campaign Committee only after an overwhelming majority of the BJP workers, supporters and leaders wanted this decision to be taken at the Goa conclave.

Now that the Party has reposed its faith in the leadership of Narendra Modi, it is high time some Central leaders of the BJP who are upset with the decision to reconcile and stop bickering. Question of BJP leading the next government is possible only when the Party is able to win sufficient number of seats in the next Lok Sabha. This is possible only when senior leaders who are opposed to Modi’s leadership should fall in line and extend full support to Gujrat chief minister.

On Sunday he news from Goa sent tremors in the Congress camp. In less than 24 hours there is jubilation in the Congress camp to see fire in the Opposition camp.

~R. K. Sinha

Consensus Favours Modi: Goa CM Takes Lead

NARENDRA MODI, CM, GUJRAT

L. K. ADVANI, SENIOR BJP LEADER

MANOHAR PARRIKAR, CM, GOA

The wind of change is blowing from Goa as Chief Minister Manohar Parikkar, the host of the BJP’s National Executive Meet has taken the lead in projecting Narendra Modi as the best suited candidate for the Prime Minister’s office amongst all the leaders of the Party. Three day meet begins today in Panjim.

Although the official agenda of the meeting is to discuss the current economic and political situation in the country that includes internal security, the issue of Narendra Modi can’t be brushed aside since majority of the 350 odd members of the National Executive would like a direction for next general elections from here.

Dissent is the essence of democracy. The BJP, unlike the Congress where there is no room for dissensions, is a democratic party in the true sense of the term. L K Advani, Jashwant Singh and Uma Bharati are not attending today’s meet on health grounds. But Advaniji would attend the National Executive Meeting tomorrow. Absence of Advaniji and others in today’s meeting is being interpreted as a note of dissent against Narendra Modi. Let me say as leader of the BJP that any decision taken by the Central leadership of the Party would be accepted by all and there will be unanimity in arriving at decisions including decision on who should be projected as BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate to take on the Congress in the next general elections.

The Party President Rajnath Singh is working steadfastly in this direction so that a consensus emerges on the issue of the chief poll campaigner.

Manohar Parikkar has said that Narendra Modi will ‘catapult’ the BJP to power at the Centre. According to his own assessment, Modi can swing 3-4% of votes in favour of the BJP. In terms of seats, the Goa Chief Minister believes that the BJP may win anything between 220-230 Lok Sabha seats under the leadership of Modi.

If we take the results of 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP contested 433 seats leaving 139 seats to its alliance partners. With 18.80% of share of votes the BJP was able to win 116 Lok Sabha Seats while losing in 170 consttuencies. The Congress on the other hand contested in 440 constituencies and won 206 seats with a share of 28.55 % of total votes polled. It lost in 71 seats.

Manohar Parikkar’s estimates of BJP winning 220-230 Lok Sabha seats by an increase of 4 % of votes in the previous elections might have taken into consideration the swing away from the Congress this time; may be by more than 6 %. That would give the BJP a total swing of 10 % in its favour. The chart below shows the performance of the BJP vis a vis the Congress in 2009.

Lok Sabha Elections 2009

Contested	Won	Lost (Deposit)	Votes   Secured by Party	% of Votes Polled
BJP-   433	116	170	78435381	18.80%
INC-    440	206	71	119111019	28.55%

Here in Panjim, the breeze from the Arabian Sea is pleasant. The BJP is upbeat as it smells power at the Centre. What is needed is building of a consensus on all issues including the economic and political resolutions. Politics apart, the BJP should also concentrate and highlight the decline in growth under the Congress led UPA Government. This year the GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) is at the lowest ebb- just 5%.

One word about Manohar Parikkar, out host here, Congress should learn a lesson or two from Parikkar who has shown to the world that transparency in governance with honest intentions can bring lot of good to the people and to the country!

~ R. K. Sinha