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| MANMOHAN SINGH, PRIME MINISTER |
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| SONIA GANDHI, CHAIRPERSON, UPA |
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| NITISH KUMAR, CM, BIHAR |
Though the Nitish Kumar Government has survived trial
of strength in the Bihar Assembly on June 19 with the help of the Congress and
the CPI, his government has been reduced to minority. Only four out of six
Independent MLAs voted in favour of the trust vote; two independents voted
against the government along with RJD MLAs. In reality, the government has 121
Members in the House of 243 which is just one short of absolute majority of
122. The state government, thus, is in minority and for every trial it has to
depend on the Congress to survive in office.
Nitish has already thanked the Congress and the CPI for
the support but will he come under pressure of the Congress Party to toe its
line for the latter’s continued support. Can Nitish Kumar or for that matter
the JD(U) afford to criticize the UPA Government on corruption charges and
scams? Can the JD(U) take on the Manmohan Singh on policy matters, perhaps not.
If that be the case then question arises about the future of Nitish joining an anti-Congress
and anti-BJP front to take on the UPA Government in the next general elections.
There is a question mark now over the yet to be formed
Federal Front being mooted by West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and
Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik of which the Bihar chief minister now is a
part of.
Reactions from Mamata and Naveen are still awaited on
the latest turn of events- Congress and CPI in the rescue of Nitish Government
in Patna. Should Nitish decide to go with the votaries of ‘third front’ that
loosely consists of the Left Parties, the Samajvadi Party, the TDP etc. then
again the JD(U) has to go against the Congress Party. Should that happens, will
the Congress in future vote for the JD(U) government? Can Nitish Government
discharge its duty honestly under the present circumstances? The ambiguity must
end sooner than later.
In the event Nitish Kumar sides with the Congress,
there is a possibility of Mayavati joining hands with Nitish in Bihar and
become part of the UPA. Mayavati does have some support base among the Dalits
in Bihar but that would be hardly of much help to the JD(U) in the elections.
Another point which is significant politically is the
Congress’ snub to Lalu Yadav who is part of the UPA. Lalu is a potential
pre-poll ally of the Congress in Bihar. He must be terribly upset by the
Congress’ move to bail out Nitish Kumar in the trial of strength in the state
assembly. Any day Congress Party would prefer Nitish over Lalu in Bihar who
does not hold any better prospects in the elections. The RJD can’t go along
with Nitish. That would force the RJD leader to go against the Congress and
join the third front or federal front whichever emerges as a formidable
opposition to the Congress and the BJP.
For the BJP it is a win-win situation in Bihar.
Nitish’s proximity with the Congress would only increase the support base for
the BJP. Virtually, the BJP would have the field to en-cash on the
anti-incumbency of the UPA Government at the Centre in the next Lok Sabha
elections.
~R. K. Sinha
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