Pre-Poll Surveys Give BJP Edge: Gets it Wrong in Delhi

From what has been given out in two pre-poll surveys for 4 States that are going to elect a new Assembly in November next, the BJP has a definite edge over the Congress which is the main rival. In Rajasthan the survey has given a clear victory to the BJP with Vasundhara Raje as the popular name for the chief minister’s office. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh too, the BJP has been shown to retain power with Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh being the clear favourites despite anti-incumbency factor. 

 However, the pollsters have got it wrong, so I believe, in Delhi where two surveys have given two pictures of the poll prospects. One can give 5 to 10 percent plus or minus of the seat projections but one is disinclined to accept that the Aam Admi Party will win 21 out of total of 70 seats in Delhi. The agency HT- C Fore survey has done this. Apart from giving Arvind Kejrival 21 seats, the agency has put the Congress ahead of the BJP with 34 seats being the single largest party in the House, just two seats  short of majority. The agency has even predicted that present incumbent Shiela Dixit is set to return to power for the fourth time in a row.

The second survey conducted by C-Voter and Times Now gives the BJP the position of single largest party in Delhi Assembly with 30 seats, short of 6 seats from the halfway mark of 36 to get absolute majority in the House of 70. It has given Congress 29 seats and 7 seats to AAP.

First, I would like to share some information with you about how the surveys are conducted. It suffers from infirmities. I am not suggesting that the trends can be rejected or dismissed outright. But take the case of one survey that was carried out with 39,000 voters spread over four poll bound States. The number of sample is very small given the fact that there are hundreds of millions of voters in the four States. Secondly, a poll survey agent of one agency was approached by a voter in Delhi. He was shown the form and asked to respond. The voter replied that he had no time for all these things. To this the survey agent said that he should just sign on the form and the rest of the work will be done by the agency. If this is the method of collecting sample of opinion poll one wonders how much credence one should attach to these surveys. This may be an exception, but there are grey areas where all the samples collected may not be authentic.

In Delhi, the general mood is against the Congress government. The people who were asked to respond to a particular question responded that the UPA Government at the Centre and the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh should be removed immediately. Such is the anger of the voters. How then the surveys show Sheila Dixit as the winner? Not oly that, one survey says that 55% voters want Shielas Dixit to go. Yet, the survey put Dixit as most popular chief minister. These contradictions defy logic.

It is being argued that when the BJP can announce its Prime Ministerial candidate much in advance of the Lok Sabha elections due only next year, why the Party fights shy of naming its chief ministerial candidate for Delhi who can be seen as an alternative to Shiela Dixit. In Rajsthan too, the voters have been given a choice to elect between present chief minster Ashok Gehlot of the Congress and Vasundhara Raje of the BJP. The fact remains that naming a person as chief ministerial candidate of the BJP is not going to change the popular mood of the voters; that is to oust Congress government.

~R. K. Sinha