People’s Verdict Is Clear: Against Congress

Without going into the details of various exit polls conducted by agencies and news channels, I can say with certainty that people who voted in the just concluded assembly elections have given their verdict against the Congress.

High turnout of voters at the polling stations is indicative of healthy democracy. The BJP is going to emerge as the clear favourite when the results of the polls are declared next Sunday, December 8, 2013.

Two things are worth taking note of. First, the high turnout of voters in all the five states that went to the polls. Normally, higher percentage of polling goes against the incumbency as is the case in Delhi and Rajasthan where the verdict is going against the Shiela Dixit and Ashok Gehlot governments. But the higher percentage of polling in Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh is not going against the two governments. On the contrary, both Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh are likely to return to power for the third consecutive term in the two states respectively.

Let us take Delhi first since the pollsters have predicted a hung assembly except one survey that gives the BJP a clear majority of 41 seats in the House of 70. In Delhi, people came out in large number to register their protest against corruption and rising prices of essential commodities not to speak of high power bills. Shiela Dixit suffered for her own failure to provide a clean governance and she has to pay the price for widely perceived corrupt rule of the Congress led government at the Centre. Despite her claim that she was clean in the scam of thousand of crores in Common Wealth Games in Delhi, people rejected her innocence in the scam. The strings of scams of the Manmohan Singh government right from the CWG to 2G and Coal also resulted in determined Delhi voters wanting the Congress to be voted out of power.

I must say here that the movement of Anna Hazare against corruption made an impact on the mind of the voters. And it was Arvind Kejriwal who exploited the mood against corruption by plunging into electoral politics. His Aam Admi Party garnered votes but not enough to see him capture power in Delhi. He on the contrary worked as a spoiler by dividing the anti-Congress votes in the national capital. I assess the situation in favour of the BJP when counting is over this coming Sunday. Harshwardhan in all likely hood is going to emerge victorious and form the next government in Delhi. Should this not happen, there is every possibility of Delhi going under the spell of Central Rule for 6 months before fresh elections are called.

People are asking did the state assembly elections have any Modi impact. It certainly has. Narendra Modi galvanized the rank and file of the BJP in all the poll bound states in Hindi heartland. He motivated the voters to come out and vote for the BJP. He drew huge crowds wherever he went campaigning.

In Rajasthan, the vote went against misrule and corruption of the Congress led government at the Centre and Gehlot’s own record of weak and corrupt regime. In Madhya Pradesh, victory of the BJP is due to three factors- Chauhan’s performance in the state, people anger against the Congress corruption at the Centre. So is the case in Chhatisgarh where the BJP is likely to retain power though the exit polls have described the contest tough and give the Congress chance to snatch power in Raipur. It is highly unlikely.

A 4-0 win for the BJP will be a harbinger of the next general elections due next year.

~R. K. Sinha