Friday, 7 June 2013

Consensus Favours Modi: Goa CM Takes Lead

The wind of change is blowing from Goa as Chief Minister Manohar Parikkar, the host of the BJP’s National Executive Meet has taken the lead in projecting Narendra Modi as the best suited candidate for the Prime Minister’s office amongst all the leaders of the Party. Three day meet begins today in Panjim.

Although the official agenda of the meeting is to discuss the current economic and political situation in the country that includes internal security, the issue of Narendra Modi can’t be brushed aside since majority of the 350 odd members of the National Executive would like a direction for next general elections from here.

Dissent is the essence of democracy. The BJP, unlike the Congress where there is no room for dissensions, is a democratic party in the true sense of the term. L K Advani, Jashwant Singh and Uma Bharati are not attending today’s meet on health grounds. But Advaniji would attend the National Executive Meeting tomorrow. Absence of Advaniji and others in today’s meeting is being interpreted as a note of dissent against Narendra Modi. Let me say as leader of the BJP that any decision taken by the Central leadership of the Party would be accepted by all and there will be unanimity in arriving at decisions including decision on who should be projected as BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate to take on the Congress in the next general elections.

The Party President Rajnath Singh is working steadfastly in this direction so that a consensus emerges on the issue of the chief poll campaigner.

Manohar Parikkar has said that Narendra Modi will ‘catapult’ the BJP to power at the Centre. According to his own assessment, Modi can swing 3-4% of votes in favour of the BJP. In terms of seats, the Goa Chief Minister believes that the BJP may win anything between 220-230 Lok Sabha seats under the leadership of Modi.

If we take the results of 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP contested 433 seats leaving 139 seats to its alliance partners. With 18.80% of share of votes the BJP was able to win 116 Lok Sabha Seats while losing in 170 consttuencies. The Congress on the other hand contested in 440 constituencies and won 206 seats with a share of 28.55 % of total votes polled. It lost in 71 seats.

Manohar Parikkar’s estimates of BJP winning 220-230 Lok Sabha seats by an increase of 4 % of votes in the previous elections might have taken into consideration the swing away from the Congress this time; may be by more than 6 %. That would give the BJP a total swing of 10 % in its favour. The chart below shows the performance of the BJP vis a vis the Congress in 2009.

Lok Sabha Elections 2009
Lost (Deposit)
 Votes   Secured by Party
 % of Votes Polled
BJP-   433    
INC-    440           

Here in Panjim, the breeze from the Arabian Sea is pleasant. The BJP is upbeat as it smells power at the Centre. What is needed is building of a consensus on all issues including the economic and political resolutions. Politics apart, the BJP should also concentrate and highlight the decline in growth under the Congress led UPA Government. This year the GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) is at the lowest ebb- just 5%.

One word about Manohar Parikkar, out host here, Congress should learn a lesson or two from Parikkar who has shown to the world that transparency in governance with honest intentions can bring lot of good to the people and to the country!

~ R. K. Sinha

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