In 90 days from now (approximately as the Election Commission is yet to announce the dates for the assembly elections) people of Bihar will get opportunity to elect a new government. Pollsters would soon flood the news channels and newspapers with their pre-poll opinion surveys to give a rough idea about the trend in the poll bound state based on their sample surveys. These samples of electorates are picked up randomly and are not representative in character. For instance, the sample voters are not picked up in a manner that include all voters spread over the political spectrum of caste, sub-caste, backward, extremely backwards, Dalits, Maha-Dalits, Muslims, Extremely Backward Muslims, Christians, Brahmins, Kayasthas, Bhumihars and Rajputs. As a result of which the pre-poll opinion surveys most of the time does not match with the poll outcome because of limited or small number of sample voters. I don’t say that the method is wrong rather I would say that it is the only way to indicate the likely trend in any elections that goes haywire sometimes though.
The just concluded elections to 24 seats of the Legislative Council (Upper House of the State Assembly) in Bihar should be taken as a precursor to the general mood in the poll bound state. For two reasons, first the electoral college of the Local Bodies elections to State Legislative Council comprises of elected members of Municipal Corporations, Members of Zila Parishads and Panchayat bodies that represent all sections of the society and can be said that the electoral college of Local Bodies is true representative character of the people. It has people from all sections, castes and communities of the society.
There are approximately one lakh four thousands voters who elected 24 Members of Legislative Council. The BJP won 12 out of 24 seats and one independent candidate supported by it also won the seat. The ruling JD (U) got 5 seats while its new ally the RJD won 4 seats, one seat went to the Congress and one to independent. Generally, this election should have favoured the ruling coalition which is the normal trend of voting. But the voters defied the trend and opted for the BJP which is now in the Opposition in Bihar.
The outcome of the Local Bodies elections should be taken as a ‘pre-poll’ survey in Bihar. A man from Bihar who works in Delhi doing some menial job was in his village last month in Champaran district. His mother comes under the Below the Poverty Line bar. She was promised a house under Indira Awas Yojna. Her name was shortlisted for the house. She was to get Rs. 85,000/- to build one room accommodation. But at the last hour the local administration in the Nitish Government cancelled the allotment without assigning any reason for it. There are hundreds of such cases where poor people have been denied their dues under various welfare schemes in Bihar under the present regime.
There are signs of discomforts amongst the alliance partners of JD (U) who are worried over the ‘Parivartan Rath’ of the BJP. The Rath is fitted with large Led Television Screen and has recorded version of the spar between Lalu and Nitish when they were opposing each other. Lalu is shown calling names and telling his audience that Nitish was never in JP movement in Bihar. It was he who got Nitish’s name included as an activist of JP movement. Nitish tells people about the jungle raj of Lalu. The BJP launched its poll campaign on July 16 from Gandhi Maidan by flagging off the Parivartan Rath by the Party President Amit Shah that would traverse in each of the 243 assembly constituencies going to polls.
It was interesting to hear Lalu Yadav reacting on the Parivartan Raths. If you believe Lalu, each Parivartan Rath cost Rs. 30 crores, any takers? To counter the high tech rath of the BJP, Lalu Yadav has said that he would also brng “tam tam rath” (horse driven carts) on the roads of Bihar for campaigning. We wait for Nitish’s rath.
....R K Sinha, MP (Rajya Sabha)
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